It’s Time for Democrats to Start Counting Backwards

With Edward’s endorsement, which has much more symbolic value than real effect, it is time for Democrats to start the countdown to Obama’s nomination. We are long past adding up delegates to see who is going to get it. According to the Associated Press, Obama is 139 delegates short of the nomination. Oregon and each of the remaining primaries will lower that number. The super-delegates committed to Clinton, who defy the wishes of their constituents in states such as Washingtonby not committing to Obama, should take a close look at their commitments to their party and to their constituents. Undecided delegates should not be viewed as a political prize worth courting, but the cause of a significant problem.

Washington State Economic News

The week already there have been a few startling reports about the economy. The Associated Press reported that in the construction industry there was an unprecedented decline in starts. The biggest drop ever! It also reported that the salmon industry is being designated a disaster qualifying it for federal help. The Washington Center for Real Estate Research also reported that in Pierce, King and Snohomish Counties home sales (excluding new homes) were down by about one third over last year, a little above the national average. This suggests that the local insulation from the national trend that we have enjoyed may be ending. Finally, Realty-Trac reported that in April foreclosures are up 65%. Now one in 519 homes in the country is in foreclosure. Washington, which initially was not severely affected by this phenomenon, is now in the middle of the pack among the states.

That’s not all the sobering economic news but all I could stomach mentioning. It is not clear to me how Bush’s policies influenced the number of salmon swimming around (a joke), but these trouble spots are directly linked to the mortgage crisis and generally attributed to the financial community’s exploitation of the absence of regulation, particularly in the investment banking area. Some people more informed than me say that the country’s rampant deficit spending also plays a role, but precisely how I do not understand.

The rising local concern about the economy will play an important role in the November elections.

Reagan Democrats

Reagan Democrats or swing voters are described by the New York Times as white working class people who did not attend college. These are the people described in Thomas Frank’s best seller What’s the Matter with Kansas?  His book is a discussion of how this portion of the population, traditionally left leaning was won over by the right.  He says that it had to do with Republicans successfully characterizing Democrats as intellectual elitists and selling themselves as defenders of traditional values on issues such as abortion and gay rights.  In this way the people whose economic interests are not promoted by Republicans were brought into the fold.  This shift on an entire demographic from left to right is a huge accomplishment of the Republicans.

The upcoming election, like many others, is about winning over these voters.  This is Senator Clinton’s base and in substantial part accounted for her runaway win in West Virginia.  Securing this base has always been a primary part of Clinton’s strategy.  She accomplished this but lost the left as well as other constituents.  McCain has defined his base as Bush’s base, recognizing at the same time that this is a miserably unpopular president, so he must gather voters from the center to have a strong bid for the presidency.  So both Obama and McCain will inevitably rush to the center during the campaign.

The Democrats have many things going for them this time: a highly unpopular war, economic troubles, particularly severe now but present in both Bush terms.  While working people have experienced difficulties, the wealthiest people have enjoyed an unsurpassed (literally) bonanza, separating themselves by historic margins from a declining middle class.

The likely Democratic candidate however has not been embraced by the swing voters.  This is a problem for the Democrats and the reason that the intense rivalry between Clinton and Obama is injurious to the party.  In attacking Obama Clinton was driving swing voters from him when the party needs to attract them to win.  In a sense her behind closed door arguments that he is not electable were fueled by the divisiveness of the campaign for candidacy.

McCain’s rush to the left to gain the center already seems a little desperate.  What else can explain a strategy to avoid absolutely all critical environmental votes in order to be able to campaign as an environmentalist.  Candidate’s position always are distorted in their need to capture the center, so Obama is likely to also make stretches.  He is already awakening to the vital importance of symbolism (an area in which the Clintons are extremely capable) and has begun wearing the flag on his lapel, which is now more or less a uniform item for candidates.